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The Forecast Desk

Part 4: The Busted Forecast

The Busted Forecast

Part 4, slide 1: MY MET JOB · FREE COURSE - The Forecast Desk

Part 4, slide 2: WHY FORECASTS MISS - Predicting the Future Is Hard

Part 4, slide 3: WHY FORECASTS MISS - Bad Forecasts vs. Missed Forecasts

Part 4, slide 4: WHY FORECASTS MISS - How a Forecast Gets Copied

Part 4, slide 5: RECOVERY - After a Missed Forecast

Part 4, slide 6: RECOVERY - Rebuilding Trust

Part 4, slide 7: RECOVERY - Get Ahead of the Miss

Part 4, slide 8: RECOVERY - Learning to Reduce the Risk of Missing Again

Part 4, slide 9: THE BUSTED FORECAST - Summary

Part 4, slide 10: PART 4 - Takeaways

Part 4, slide 11: NEXT STEP - Keep Going

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Key takeaways

Forecasting is prediction

Everyone predicts every day, and many are wrong.

Process over outcome

A missed forecast is fine. No process is not.

Never copy the model

Look at what is actually happening.

Review every miss

Find the bad choice and correct it.

Rebuild trust

Own it, and alert customers early.

Reduce the risk

Be conservative and build case studies.

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